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I follow Steve Miller (Ask Slim) who says that TLT is likely in a rising phase and oil will be declining over the next several weeks. XLY had a significant rally and it looks like not as good of a risk-reward entry at this point.

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Thank you for sharing Steve Miller’s take, Jeremy. His timing insights on TLT and oil add an interesting layer to our macro analysis here. The potential rising phase for TLT aligns well with the broader picture of a softening labor market and falling job openings. This shift could indeed put downward pressure on long-term yields, as investors might pivot toward bonds for stability if the Fed leans more dovish.

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