If we have a recession it may be from a black swan event. Or possibly, one of the many gray swans that the market is discounting, such as war, US election uncertainty, another pandemic.
If nothing bad happens, we could have a soft landing. But we need to be prepared for all outcomes.
Totally agree Jeremy. The possibility of a black swan event leading to a recession is always on the radar, but it's often the gray swans - those looming risks the market is aware of but downplays - that can catch investors off guard. Gray swans have been at the root of many economic downturns.
Denis we're both aligned on that as my thought follow your way: It’s a delicate balance, but with consumer confidence starting to waver and inflationary pressures persisting, the window for a soft landing is narrowing.
If we have a recession it may be from a black swan event. Or possibly, one of the many gray swans that the market is discounting, such as war, US election uncertainty, another pandemic.
If nothing bad happens, we could have a soft landing. But we need to be prepared for all outcomes.
Totally agree Jeremy. The possibility of a black swan event leading to a recession is always on the radar, but it's often the gray swans - those looming risks the market is aware of but downplays - that can catch investors off guard. Gray swans have been at the root of many economic downturns.
Alessandro, that a recession is coming is a surprise for me. But I'm not predicting. Let's wait and see what happens over the next few months.
Denis we're both aligned on that as my thought follow your way: It’s a delicate balance, but with consumer confidence starting to waver and inflationary pressures persisting, the window for a soft landing is narrowing.