Unpredictable consequences (7 must point to read) 👇
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Unpredictable consequences
(7 must point to read)
✔ “The events of March are a vivid example of how the sharpest rise in major market interest rates since the 1980s can (and likely will continue to) have unpredictable consequences.”
✔ “China opening, lower energy prices, swifter rate cuts to provide positive offsets.”
✔ “US economic growth has proved to be much more resilient to higher interest rates, energy and other input costs than many expected.”
✔ “The big question going forward is whether the US economy’s resilience to higher rates and recent bank and financial volatility is sustainable or if the impact is just delayed.”
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✔ “However, with employment markets still healthy relative to previous cycles and consumer balance sheets still strong, barring a much larger domestic or external shock, we think the slowdown we remain highly sector focused, and a broader deep recession is likely to be avoided.”
✔ “Despite idiosyncratic and sector specific risks, at an aggregate level, US, Eurozone and UK banking systems are substantially stronger than they were in the run up to the 2008/09 global financial crisis and systemic risk is low we believe.”
✔ “Falling energy and food price inflation should lead to a sharp drop in Europe’s headline inflation rates ov\er the next few months. Core inflation, however, has been sticky, with latest data showing a continued acceleration through March.”
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Disclosure
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.