🚨 This has only happened in 1970, 2000, and 2021

August 1, 2025 >> What It Means for Your Portfolio?

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Dear all,

There are moments in the markets when I feel an odd mix of awe and apprehension, and this is one of them.

As I pore over the data from this week, I can’t help but think of the few times in history when we’ve been here before - those rare instances when the music is still playing, but the floor beneath feels unsteady.

I’ve lived through enough cycles to recognize the signs, and the story they tell right now is one of excitement, but also of caution.

I remember 2008 vividly - the optimism that masked fragility, the overconfidence that seemed unshakable until it wasn’t.

Those experiences etched into my mind a lesson that is now as relevant as ever:

The market always rewards discipline and punishes complacency.

📈 Valuations that whisper warnings

The Wilshire 5000 to GDP ratio - the famous Buffett Indicator - is now sitting at two standard deviations above its historical trend, and that alone should make any serious investor pause.

We’ve only been here three times before: 1970, 2000, and 2021.

Each of those points marked a tipping point.

In the early ‘70s, the S&P 500 lost 36%; in the dot-com bust, nearly half the index vanished; and following 2021’s euphoria, we saw a bruising 24% decline.

These weren’t random corrections - they were painful reckonings that followed periods of exuberance.

Today, the same signals are flashing.

I don’t see them as predictions of doom, but as reminders that gravity eventually asserts itself.

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