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Macro Mornings 💡
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💹 Peak of Opportunity

💹 Peak of Opportunity

August 13, 2025 >> Why This Rally Isn’t Done Yet

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Alessandro (Macro Strategist)
Aug 13, 2025
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Macro Mornings 💡
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💹 Peak of Opportunity
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🎯 This is part of a series designed for PRO investors who want real-time updates on macroeconomic news through my advanced insights. Feel free to catch up on previous emails here if you'd like to start from the beginning!

Dear all,

I’ve been tracking the market with a level of focus and intensity that only a year like this could inspire.

The S&P 500 has now notched its 16th all-time high of 2025, following the 57 we saw in 2024, which stands as the fifth highest rally in market history.

table

These aren’t just numbers - they are milestones that reflect extraordinary momentum.

When we’ve seen over 50 all-time highs in a single year before, the subsequent 12 months have delivered an average gain of +12.4%.

But history also tells me that even in those high-flying years, there were moments of sharp reality checks - pullbacks in the range of -5% to -8% that tested the resilience of every investor watching the screen.

🔥 The Most-Hated Rally Keeps Marching Higher

What continues to amaze me is how unloved this rally is.

The latest BofA survey shows 91% of fund managers believe U.S. equities are overvalued.

chart

This kind of sentiment isn’t new to me.

I remember vividly the market climates of late 1995 and mid-2017 - both dominated by skepticism, both followed by substantial gains of 10-15% over the next year.

It’s a strange paradox: when doubt is widespread, and everyone is convinced prices have climbed too high, the market often keeps going, fueled by the very investors who find themselves forced to buy in late for fear of missing out.


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© 2025 Alessandro (Global Macro Strategist)
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