🎯 India is well positioned for a multi-year improvement in economic output and earnings (15 must reads)👇
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India is well positioned for a multi-year improvement in economic output and earnings
(15 must reads)👇
✔ “India’s macro fundamentals are well positioned for a multi-year improvement in economic output and earnings.”
✔ “Beyond the long-standing strength of its demographics, urbanization and rising middle class, new factors are emerging that will accelerate investment opportunities in the country.”
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EQUITIES 👇
✔ “India's long-term growth story is appealing beyond its short-term valuation excess and is supported by improved bank balance sheets, sound corporate balance sheets, leaner cost structures, policy reforms and Production-Linked Incentives (PLI).”
✔ “The Indian rupee now appears more stable and can benefit in an environment of USD weakness. Despite the uncertainty, 2023 may be a better year for the rupee than 2022.”
LONG TERM STORY 👇
✔ “The typical long-term story for India focuses on its demographics, urbanisation, digitalisation, rising middle class, and consequently the size of wallets.”
✔ “The country is home to 1.3-1.4bn people or 18% of the world’s population. Moreover, the median age of its population is likely to remain below 30 this decade, whereas the median age in China is already 38 years, and 32 years for the world as a whole.”
✔ “This improves the availability of labour and helps contain labour costs, thereby feeding the country’s growth potential.”
✔ “Just over a third of Indians live in urban areas, but over the next few decades, cities will likely experience a greater influx and will benefit from improved access to water, electricity, internet, and urban amenities.”
✔ “Indian household income is likely to double from the current USD 1,700 per capita (estimated for 2022) to USD 3,400 per capita by FY30”.
CURRENCIES 👇
✔ “Along with other emerging market currencies, the Indian rupee (INR) has improved since the beginning of the year, with recent US dollar (USD) weakness sitting at the heart of this appreciation.”
✔ “Since mid-2021, the USD has been incredibly strong, pushing down the Chinese renminbi to its 2008 level, the euro and the yen to levels last seen in 2002 and 1998 respectively, and the British pound to all-time lows.”
✔ “It's true that the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory still carries a degree of uncertainty.”
✔ “Despite the rise in advocates of a ‘soft’ or 'no landing', following the release of economic data in January, the US economy is slowing, concerns about the debt ceiling are growing and a sharper-than-expected decline in global growth cannot be ruled out.”
✔ “Despite these uncertainties, we are inclined to believe that 2023 might be a better year for the rupee than 2022.
✔ “While the very near term may be a little turbulent, and we do not completely rule out some pain, we believe the currency may be better positioned 12 months from now.”
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Disclosure
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.