💣Currency Wars Are Back

July 30, 2025 >> They Could Wipe Out 10 Years of Gains

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Dear all,

This topic was actually suggested by Michael, a thoughtful member of our Macro Mornings community, who asked for a deeper dive to support his own research and market positioning. I found his intuition timely - and I hope what follows helps you as much as it helped him.

Something quiet has been shifting in markets lately - a subtle dissonance between price action and narrative. The headlines remain calm, but FX pairs are moving with intent: the dollar has dropped 13.8% this year, the euro climbs steadily, and the yen and yuan drift toward familiar pressure points. On the surface, these seem like routine adjustments. But taken together, they hint at a deeper undercurrent.

This reminds me of those inflection points where macro forces start diverging from the consensus script - where small signals begin to matter more than big statements. Oil's drop, the bid in long bonds, the quiet lift in gold and EM assets - none of these are random. They're early notes in a larger score.

In what follows, I share what I’m watching and how I’m interpreting these moves - not as predictions, but as possibilities worth preparing for.

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