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Dear all,
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been watching the bond market with the kind of attention you give to a seasoned storyteller - you know there’s a twist coming, but you can’t yet see how it will unfold.
On August 1, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.23%, its lowest level in three months, while the 2-year ended at 3.69%.
That puts the 10-2 spread at 0.54%, a sharp rebound from the deep inversion we lived through between July 2022 and August 2024.
History, however, warns that this kind of recovery in the curve isn’t always good news.
In 2007, when the spread turned positive after eight months inverted, relief was short-lived: nine months later, the S&P 500 had plunged -56%, and the dollar had surged +12% against the euro.
In 2000, the pattern repeated - brief optimism, then a -49% Nasdaq collapse and a rally in Treasuries that cut 10-year yields by over 200 bps in a year.
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