🕵️‍♂️ A potential worry for 2025?

August 4, 2025 >> A Perfect Storm?

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Dear all,

As I sit here reflecting on the markets, I feel like we’re in one of those rare moments when history, data, and sentiment collide.

These aren’t ordinary days - they are filled with signals that demand our attention, echoes of past cycles colliding with the uncertainty of the present.

Every chart I look at, every data release I analyze, and every subtle market movement feels like a piece of a larger puzzle we’ve seen before - though never arranged quite like this.

It’s not just about numbers on a chart - it’s about the story those numbers are telling us.

It’s the narrative of fear and greed, of policymakers struggling to steer an enormous ship through stormy waters, of investors caught between hope for stability and the deep-rooted anxiety of what might lie ahead.

These moments demand more than just observation; they require interpretation.

And right now, that story feels both familiar and unsettling.

There’s an eerie resonance with past turning points - times when complacency was challenged, and portfolios that once felt safe were suddenly exposed as fragile.

It reminds me that markets don’t shout their warnings; they whisper them.

Markets speak through subtle cues, and if we listen carefully, we can catch those whispers before they become roars.

Sometimes they reveal themselves in rising hedging costs, sometimes in the quiet strengthening of a currency, or the flattening of a yield curve that once looked benign.

Every detail matters.

This is one of those times when it pays to listen - to step back, read between the lines of the data, and prepare for a future that may look very different from the recent past.

🛡️ The Cost of Fear

I can’t ignore how expensive protection has become.

Hedging a 10% drop in the S&P 500 now costs 2.2, the highest since May 2023.

I remember vividly when we saw similar levels back in August 2015 - just weeks later, the S&P tumbled ~11%.

These aren’t coincidences. They’re signals.

Institutions - the big players with access to information and analysis beyond what most of us can see - are paying up for protection.

They’re bracing themselves for turbulence.

And when they do that, it’s usually for good reason.

This doesn’t guarantee a sell-off, but in my experience, these inflection points often precede notable volatility.

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